Given it costs $2 to buy a Mega Millions lottery ticket that could pay off with an estimated $810 million prize To start with, your chance of winning the Grand Prize is minuscule, at one in 302.5 million. You have better odds of a smaller payoff, such as winning $1 million for matching five regular numbers but missing the Mega Ball. But even that is one in 12.6 million. To put that in perspective, your chance of dying in a car crash — something to consider as you drive to the store for a lottery ticket — is around one in 101 over a lifetime, according to the nonprofit National Safety Council. As lottery officials note, players should think of their $2 bet as a chance to dream while accepting the reality they likely won’t be entering a new income tax bracket Tuesday night.